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Well the issue with housing doesn't seem to be a "bubble" in the same sense. It's moreso we aren't building enough housing so the supply is limited.

With higher rates the monthly price is higher too which is contributing to un-affordability. But if rates go down then monthly payment prices would go down, which would cause prices to go up.

If rates go down because there's a substantial recession home prices may go down but many people may be out of jobs or unwilling to sell.



It becomes a bubble when suddenly people who paid a fortune for mortgages at sky high prices aren't able to pay them anymore. Or demand falls.

The market is currently tight but on both supply and demand. No one with a 2% mortgage wants to move. No one wants to buy at 6% interest.


I personally think of a bubble has having a significant speculation component which I don't think applies wholly to the housing market in the same way it does today's stock market. The reasons that housing prices are so high, in my opinion, is primarily because of structural problems. But certainly others may feel differently or define a bubble differently.


The reasons likely vary by region.


I think that's true and even true at a zip code level for some locations. Broadly speaking though I think I stand by my assessment but always interested to hear other opinions on the topic because it is quite fascinating.




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