I would never have thought that the TN would be at risk but if relations between the U.S. and Canada continue down the path that we're on, then I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I'm not sure how long it would take for the U.S. to get out of the free trade agreement but if the U.S. were so motivated, it effectively could kill the TN very quickly, even if just by policy and practice. So yes, if you can, it probably makes sense to start looking at options to get off the TN, such as the H-1B (but subject to the annual lottery), the O-1, and the E-2.
In my experience, big tech companies ask their TNs to start participating in every H1B lottery as soon as they join, and switch them over as soon as they bag a spot.
TN renewals are risky because you can be arbitrarily judged as having immigrant intent and get rejected, especially the more times you keep renewing them. H1B in contrast is dual-intent so this risk isn't there. Just my IANAL understanding of things.
For reference, I'm a Canadian who just moved to the US on a TN Visa and I've got a few questions:
- What would you say the percentage likelihood range is that the TN Visa is no longer an option for Software Engineers in 3 years time.
- With the news of USMCA talks reopening, is it advisable to switch to an H-1B visa?
- How long would it take for the government to eliminate the TN Visa, considering the complexity of the process?
- If the TN Visa is discontinued, is it safe to assume those already on it will be allowed to work in the US until their Visa expires?