I don't think they will ever do an open-source release, because then the curtains would be pulled back and people would see that they're not actually state of the art. Lama 4 already sort of tanked Meta's reputation, if OpenAI did that it'd decimate the value of their company.

If they do open sourcing something, I expect them to open-source some existing model (maybe something useless like gpt-3.5) rather than providing something new.