Well, I look at the inflation numbers, and then I look at the prices, and I notice that prices consistently rise faster than inflation. And I think that observed reality outweighs any vague theoretical justification. But I'm not an economist. I notice that economics seems to be the only "science" where if the theory and reality disagree, it means the reality is wrong.
Well that's one interpretation of those charts. Here's another:
Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less.
You may look at that and say well that's good because it's real income but it isn't. There are substitution issues with CPI. The housing component is lagging, relies on "in-place" rent and doesn't really reflect quality or size or housing affordability (just rents).
Look at other measures, like homelessness increasing 18% in 2024, consumer confidence and how for the last 20 years people have flocked to any political candidate that promises meaningful change, from Obama to Bernie to Trump to Zohran.
HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience. We are profoundly privileged. But privilege convinces some that everything is meritocracy when each of us is profoundly fortunate to be where we are (eg being born in a Western country, having a relatively stable family life, having access to education, speaking English and so on).
It's why the ZIP code you were born in is possibly the biggest predictor of your success [1].
Real income has barely increased since 1980, as in 10% or less.
Real median household income is up over 36% since 1984 (the furthest back the linked chart goes: 1984 was in the middle of an economic expansion, so you’d expect a comparison with four years earlier to look even better).
And CPI has just as many potential substitution issues the other way: Hedonic adjustments are made, but it’s effectively impossible to quantify the value of decades worth of novel and improved goods that simply didn’t exist decades earlier.
HN in particular and tech in general is a bubble. It insulates you to a large degree from the median experience.
I linked decades of numbers about the median household, which you then numerically misrepresented. Bubble, pop thyself.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q