There's a lot of luck involved in the Nvidia story. Twenty five years ago no one was assuming there would be a need for $100M LLM training projects. No one expected the crypto mining demand either. To be honest they are lucky that CPU manufacturing didn't move into SIMD space and that the gaming market grew so much between 2000-2012.
Yeah they paved the road, but it's a surprise that it lead to many good destinations.
You aren't betting against Nvidia, you are betting against the burden of trillions of profit the hype has put in Nvidia. Can Nvidia really generate that much profits? If not its overhyped and you should bet against it.
NVidia is a great company, with a phenomenal product that they competently developed and made dominant. There was a big element of luck in that, but it won't continue forever no matter how smart and diligent they are.
It feels like the whole magnificent seven thing and the the way they are holding up an overvalued stock market is driving some desperate decision-making. Like 12 more billion dollars for XAI to buy more Nvidia GPUs does XAI have any revenue at all?
its unironically going to the moon. the mag7 are doing better than ever:
- google ai-maxxed and wiping the floor after a slow start
- apple owning the smartphone space right as desktops are becoming genuinely irrelevant
- microsoft owning the corporate space right as local and on-site is becoming genuinely irrelevant
- nvidia building gigashovels for the gold rush
- meta... well, we'll see how the 'superintelligence' turns out. meta is the weakest bet of the bunch.
- aws... doing cloud stuff, i guess. also not a clear story.
if anyone got lucky, its zuck. between vr, metaverse, and now his thick-rimmed goggles he appears to be genuinely clueless, riding the waves of his facebook moonshot.
the mag7 are gonna be called the giga7 by 2030.
you think the stocks are overheated? you haven't seen nothing. what we call a 'bubble' today, will appear to have been a gentle ramp-up for the real bubble that's waiting for us in 2030.
the printing will continue, btw. and the debt will hit $100 trillion by 2030. and the US will be even more powerful than previously thought possible.
long pax americana, long orange fool, long whoever succeeds him, long the deep state.
