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The same argument can be used for anything.

Personal jetpacks are the worst they’ll ever be. Doesn’t mean they’re any close to being useful.



The difference is the incentive to improve, and actual present rate of improvement, for models like this is far higher than it is for jetpacks. (That and certain intrinsic features at least suggest the route to improvement is roughly "more of the same," vs "needs massive unknown breakthrough".)


Trillions of dollars are not being invested in making jet packs any better

Your comparison is incorrect


You say assuming money is limitless and investor patience for returns is endless.


And if trillions of dollars were being invested in that, it would mean lots of investors being disappointed in a few years, not that jet packs were close to being useful.

Not sure if that's what you are trying to say about AI, or not.


While true, it's the speed of improvement that gives the statement gravity.


> Personal jetpacks are the worst they’ll ever be

Have they become better over the past 20 years?


It's also just wrong. Plenty of things get worse.


Not really. E.g. clay tablets, physical books will not be meaningfully better.


Yes, but they're not going to get any worse.


Books are printed on worse paper these days that doesn't last as long.


"not getting worse" is a pretty low bar


Which is precisely my point. It's the _lowest_ bar possible.




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