Well I for example don't give a shit what prediction markets do and never participated, but if someone thinks they're wrong, they should just participate and get free money. Otherwise why complain.

I wasn't complaining per-se, I was asking for (and expecting) a legitimate reason. Which I got: that the market is resolved purely based on LLM Arena which Anthropic has never done well on (which says more about the benchmark than about Anthropic).

You got a random person saying a random thing. There's no explanation for a market. The same way the stock market doesn't move for the reason the articles say it does. Everyone on each side has their own multitude of reasons.