> The government is basically telling everyone to take crazy risks, because if the risk is big enough, we'll bail you all out.
This is the widespread sentiment, yes, and why the bubble is so crazy. The feeling a lot of people have is; even if shit hits the fan, rather than let stocks/assets decrease in value relative to cash, governments will just print money and keep stocks/assets "stable" while making cash worthless. The US proved they're willing to do this during COVID. What you're betting on by holding assets despite the bubble is that they're willing to do it again.
Yeah, but can they afford it? The government's debt obligations and inflation made it possible, the circumstances have changed considerably. They could wreck the economy for a long time by doing something like that again (particularly if it isn't a war or something).
The people in control of the economy are not affected by the state of the economy. There is no incentive for them not to gamble because there is no downside. If they win, they get even more money and power. If they lose, they'll still have their yachts and land and hobby rocket, newspaper, and social media companies.
Putin the magnificent has said "whoever leads in AI will rule the world". So it is a war. An arms race. Weirdly being run by private capital cuz there was no incentive(unlike during WW2/Cold War) to fund a state run Manhattan Project for AI.
Watch what happens if a breakthrough comes out of China, Russia or a shed in Nigeria. What is happening on Wall Street or who is loosing cash or jobs will drop instantly down the list of priorities. Money will be printed to the moon.
I think rather than there being "no state inventive", its that there is already private incentive, so there's not enough reason for the state to get heavily involved outside of maybe providing some additional capital. Private companies are already putting in the effort and taking on much of the risk, the government can just step in later after the results show.
Of course not, but with the Fed always standing at the ready to print more money, the answer is yes. The downside is persistent inflation. Inflation and default are two sides of the same coin.
This is the widespread sentiment, yes, and why the bubble is so crazy. The feeling a lot of people have is; even if shit hits the fan, rather than let stocks/assets decrease in value relative to cash, governments will just print money and keep stocks/assets "stable" while making cash worthless. The US proved they're willing to do this during COVID. What you're betting on by holding assets despite the bubble is that they're willing to do it again.