>What would count as proof of AI trajectory to AGI?
It depends on who you ask. There is no absolute for definition of "AGI". Sam Altman defines it in monetary terms, because that benefits him. I have a very different idea of what "AGI" means. It's really very subjective, so I don't have a definite answer for you. I'm sure you'd define "AGI" differently than I would, so having this discussion is kind of a waste of my time.
The peo1ple pouring money into "AI" are doing so in the hope that it will become more reliable someday. My educated guess is that it won't, due to the underlying mechanisms that it is built on. Predicting the next word in a sentence according to grammatical rules is a long, long way off from a machine knowing and understanding how truthful the resulting sentence is.
I would say that's rational take, it's a long shot and probably investments of such caliber should have stronger proofs. I believe some companies are investing so much, to not be left behind if there is an even remote chance of success...Apple was one of the top companies not following and there have been huge criticism, that they are left behind
Also I think you will like this interview with founder of Cohere AI, it's much more nuanced and doesn't say AGI is near...more like we are far away, although it's useful.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sw2chzwWLbQ
It depends on who you ask. There is no absolute for definition of "AGI". Sam Altman defines it in monetary terms, because that benefits him. I have a very different idea of what "AGI" means. It's really very subjective, so I don't have a definite answer for you. I'm sure you'd define "AGI" differently than I would, so having this discussion is kind of a waste of my time.
The peo1ple pouring money into "AI" are doing so in the hope that it will become more reliable someday. My educated guess is that it won't, due to the underlying mechanisms that it is built on. Predicting the next word in a sentence according to grammatical rules is a long, long way off from a machine knowing and understanding how truthful the resulting sentence is.