Various people have been wrong on various predictions in the past, and it seems to me that any implied strong overlap is anecdotal at best and wishful (why?) thinking at worst.
The only really embarrassing behavior is never updating your priors when your predictions are wrong. Also, if you're always right about all your prognoses, you should probably also not be in the HN comments but on a prediction market, on-chain or traditional :)
- crypto was massively hyped and then crashed (although it's more than recovered),
- many grifters chase hypes, and
- there's undeniably an AI hype going on at the moment
doesn't necessarily imply that AI is full of grifters or confirms any adjacent theories (as in, could be true, could be false, but the argument does not hold).
I'm sorry, but the idiocy that was crypto-hype can't be dismissed this easily. It's hard to make a prediction on AI because things are moving so fast and the technology is actually useful, so I wouldn't fault anyone for being wrong in retrospect. But when it comes to NFTs: if you bought into that stuff you are either a sucker or a scammer and in both cases your future opinions can be safely discarded.
> the idiocy that was crypto-hype can't be dismissed this easily.
Maybe so, but would it be possible to not dismiss it elsewhere? I just don't see the causal relation between AI and crypto, other than that both might be completely overhyped, world-changing, or boringly correctly estimated in their respective impact.
Various people have been wrong on various predictions in the past, and it seems to me that any implied strong overlap is anecdotal at best and wishful (why?) thinking at worst.
The only really embarrassing behavior is never updating your priors when your predictions are wrong. Also, if you're always right about all your prognoses, you should probably also not be in the HN comments but on a prediction market, on-chain or traditional :)