I recently attempted to do this while burning an Ubuntu ISO to a USB stick - the restart countdown will still progress even if the update server is off.
There are a couple other methods too. There's a group policy setting (that you can define on a standalone system), gpedit.msc which says "No auto-restart with logged on users for scheduled automatic updates installations".
Local Computer Policy
+ Computer Configuration
+ Administrative Templates
+ Windows Components
+ Windows Update
+ No auto-restart with logged on users for scheduled automatic updates installations
+ Enabled
Shutdown -a didn't work either.