The "unexpectedly" is because the people looking at more real-time (but more indirect) indicators were expecting jobs to increase by about 50k or so.
It's rather more like someone going "based on the daily footfall numbers in my store, I expect sales to be up 1% this month" and the actual data being down 2%.
Not only that, Iran is attacking Saudi and friends infrastructure so that they have to use their capital there and not invest in the USA's AI nor government debt.
I don't know, but you may find it interesting to consider the 3 different types of probability(Karl Popper):
Intuition/Psychological/Subjective: Like 'there is a 70% chance I go to the gym today'. (They are probably similar for both GOP and Dems)
Subjective but relational: 'there is no clouds in the sky, so its unlikely to rain' (Trump's regime is more corrupt, so its likely to be more misleading than Obama)
Objective: 'there is a 1/6 chance I roll a 5 on the dice'. (There is no objective way to know)
What do you mean noise? American people pay 96% of them with an average cost of $1000+ per family over the last year. To the vast majority of people that's waaayyyy above the noise floor.
Do you really intend to make such a blanket statement? If taxes are evil then it follows that any public service (police, roads, airports, hospitals, public education, libraries, publicly funded research) is evil since they are funded by taxes.
Let's raise tariffs again.