Musk is thinking 8 steps ahead of almost everyone. While Tesla is a huge play with revolutionizing the car world, there are some other parts in play.
First, his Gigafactory to produce batteries. When the other big automakers get into the electric car mindset, who are they going to buy batteries from? Musk who owns the single largest and high-tech battery factory (that produces on an enormous scale), or other battery producers who have less economies of scale and higher prices? Obviously, lower prices win and Musk ends up selling batteries to his competitors...genius.
Second, when other manufacturers get into the electric car game they are going to need nationwide chargers. Did you think that the Tesla and Supercharger of proprietary connectors for no reason? Since Tesla will have a huge nationwide system before anyone else, Musk will license the rights to use his chargers. Again, making money from the competition. Competitors will not have the ability to compete on charging when they release cars because Tesla will already have an established network.
As for SpaceX...thats a whole another post for another day.
What's amazing is that Tesla has been providing NRE R&D for OTHER automotive companies for years already. Last year, $15 million of their revenue was from development services but as early as 2011, $55 million of revenue (>25%) was from basically doing powertrain design for companies like Toyota and Mercedes.
Tesla will definitely make a killing on batteries. I actually think the supercharger network is going to REMAIN proprietary as a competitive advantage for Tesla vs. other electric car companies. As someone who's done research in this in the past, there are already well-established standards adopted by the IEEE and companies like GE for charging. This is obviously to encourage the adoption of the technology.
However, since most electric charging networks are run by private companies or utilities, we may have the "roaming charge" issue that telecom had once upon a time. In other words, if you lived in Texas and got your electric charge from your local utility as part of your monthly bill, you may have to pay "roaming charge fees" for charging in California.
But if you're on the Tesla network, the "fuel" is part of your purchase price. This is Apple-level walled garden tactics and it demonstrates the foresight of Elon Musk and his team. What an incredible entrepreneur.
The charging network also has a lot of risks associated with it. There are 192 other countries in this world all of whom will be looking to charging standards as opposed to relying on a single American company. This means that some time in the near future Tesla will have to go back and retrofit their cars/stations to meet this standard.
Apple's walled garden strategy works because the devices are cheap and relatively throw away. Cars are not.
Few cars cross borders relative to those that are driven exclusively or almost exclusively relative to those that always drive in country. That being the case, so long as I can use an adapter when I take my car into another country with a different standard, I would be mostly fine.
Tesla has always said their goal is to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. I suspect they will try to sell other car companies the drivetrains and rights to the super chargers.
> Did you think that the Tesla and Supercharger of proprietary connectors for no reason
This isn't just entirely for a competitive advantage, although I'm sure they plan on licensing as you mention.
The fact is none of the existing DC charging standards can handle nearly as much power as Tesla's system can. CHAdeMO can handle up to 62kW (but most are 50kW or less), and some of the new Combo chargers have demonstrated (but not implemented) ~100kW. Superchargers can do 120kW right now, and Tesla has claimed they will up this to 135. As with so much of what they do, the existing state of the art is just so far behind they had no option but to roll their own. Everything else that exists currently is simply too slow for recharging during long distance trips (which nobody else cares about, because no other BEV has anywhere near the range)
Musk is thinking 8 steps ahead of almost everyone.
I think he's just thinking from first principles and it's the rest of us that have convoluted reality with a panoply of suppositions and just-so stories. People like Musk only seem like they have a "reality distortion field because we're seeing his simple conclusions through the lens of our own distortions. (It's us that have the 8-steps, in a tortured circle.)
I agree with a lot of what you said. However, this:
"Competitors will not have the ability to compete on charging when they release cars because Tesla will already have an established network."
is dramatically wrong. They will absolutely compete on charging, stubbornly so, and probably leveraging politics in the process. The major energy companies will also get into the charging business (much like the oil companies did with gasoline stations), and they too will fight with Tesla on standards, and attempt to set their own. The one guarantee is that the energy industry, filled full of extremely powerful companies used to dominating and getting their way, will not simply go along with Musk because he got there first (ditto for Ford and GM). That's not to say Tesla's standard will or won't prevail (or whether several will win out), but rather that there will be a long fight over it, and the competition will be belligerent.
I very much agree with you: energy companies and other auto manufacturers will get into the charging business. They have to!
But I defend my point based on this: Would you buy a car that has an established charging network, or a car with only a few chargers nationwide? Of course, the established network since there is less worry about "filling up". This is a direct mirror of today's issue with electric vehicles: there isn't a large charging network. Tesla has been competing against other vehicles that have no range anxiety. Similarly, if GM produces a car to use only a GM charger buyers will feel this anxiety and tend toward an easier solution. Therefore, it would only make sense for GM to license the rights to use Tesla chargers since GM can quell range fears and still make money off the car sale.
As for a standard in charging. This is going to be a long fight. The energy and auto industry (minus Tesla) has the political power and money to force a standard many times over. The question becomes: accept a standard because it exists and was funded well (feature phones), or choose something new because it is supremely better (iPhone 1).
Who knows, I enjoyed your response. It made me rethink about this.
I think the best way to think about this is to think of the mobile phone network. Do you sign up with AT&T or do you sign up with T-Mobile? Despite T-Mobile's (allegedly - I don't live in the US, so I'm just going on what people say) better customer service, their network is just far less prevalent compared to AT&T's which enables AT&T to maintain its hold on customers. But T-Mobile continues to build out its network, having already achieved the point where there is enough of a network to pick up the necessary customers to fund the continued expansion of the network.
I would see car chargers going the same way. From now on, if you want to play in this market, you're going to have to face down Tesla's advantage in the charging network. This is Tesla building a moat to make it harder for competitors, but as with all moats, it is not unbreachable - with enough resources, a competitor can achieve a minimal viable network which gets them a foothold in the market.
It is not uncommon for manufacturers of 'systems' to hedge their bets by becoming suppliers of components to competitors. Examples abound in the cell phone industry: Samsung makes Apple's A series chips and possibly, other components.
It is not a certainty that Tesla's battery manufacturing facilities can lower the price of batteries to achieve the < $30k per-car price point. I'd imagine a single factory that also sells to other car makers will solve the existing problem with scale. Currently, making/procuring 10k batteries a year is probably a big factor in making them so costly. It is almost universally true that manufacturing in larger numbers will bring down the price (probably not in a linear way, rather logarithmically).
Infrastructure has been surprisingly important to a few innovations in the past: Edison didn't just invent a commercially viable light bulb... he also built the power stations (which of course didn't exist before they were needed); Mr Birdseye didn't just freeze fish... he (actually the company that bought him out) established freezers in supermarkets (which of course didn't exist before they were needed).
In fact, Nissan's Tennessee plant can already manufacture 200,000 battery packs per year. They have been in the game of producing new battery chemistry technologies since 2009, when they started work on a technology partnership to bring Lithium NMC batteries to production vehicles.
His move is economical as well as and advantage for his business.
If you take him for his word and since he believes in breaking down a problem into its individual components and improve it the the only reason he is building the battery factory is because he saw the opportunity and the potential to make a batter and cheaper battery.
And on the issues of charging stations is he needs them anyway and it's not like there's a standardized connector for quickly charging a car so he made his own, he would have done the same it there was a connector but it wasn't any good, however i doubt he would have done it if there wasn't an engineering advantage.
I'm not convinced about the success of their mega battery factory; after all, wasn't there a big problem with getting rare earth materials for things like batteries a while ago? Is there enough raw material to keep it supplied?
Makes me think how much we need a revolution in batteries.
I am wondering if there will be a new type of batteries soon or maybe we'll get improved capacity by slapping a software layer that manages charging/discharging.
As far as I can tell - there's lots of "interesting" energy storage technology being researched, but there's nothing that's close to being ready for at-scale manufacturing.
The most remarkable thing about the 60 Minutes segment was the simplification of Tesla Motors' history, and Elon's apparent unwillingness to correct the record in front of the camera. Elon was not the founder of Tesla. He was an angel investor, and then became a major investor, and over time took over after ousting the early founders. That is a very different story than he founded the company, that it was his singular vision, blah blah blah.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Tesla Motors and a believer in the vision and how Tesla's going about achieving sustainable transport for the world. But I am also a huge fan of accuracy, and having founded some startups and co-founded some startups and worked for a bunch of startups that I did not found or co-found, I try hard to get the story right and not give people the impression that it was all me. I wish Elon didn't do that. I wish he insisted 60 Minutes get the story right, even if not convenient. I don't like a manufactured story, especially when it's supposed to be nonfiction television journalism.
Elon Musk has made a deliberate attempt to simplify a founding story before, when he was leaving Paypal. In Musk's separation agreement with the company [1], there's a section marked "Deletion of References to Founders." In light of (what looks like) Musk rewriting history with his previous company too, I'm not sure 60 Minutes is to blame.
"[Paypal] acknowledges that Mr. Musk is a founder of the Company and its predecessor X.com. The Company agrees that, within ten days after the effective date of this Agreement, all references to 'founders' of the company will be removed from the Company's website ... the Company shall refrain from stating who the founders of the Company are or making statements quoted in the press that undermine Mr. Musk's status as a 'founder' of X.com."
I love what he's done for Tesla since taking over. There's real potential in the products the company has to offer, and I own a bit of TSLA myself. But at this point, Elon Musk doesn't need a "lone hero" story to change the world, and I'm not sure I agree with the decision to craft it.
I, for one, welcome Elon Musk's empire! He couldn't possibly be paying for all the hype, all the influence, backing a worldwide PR campaign about himself and his stunts. He's on the media simply because he's freaking awesome compared to other millionaires industrialists. Come on, look at what the guy has done so far... we need more Elons Musks. There, end of fanboyism :-)
Also, it's clear that all he did wouldn't be possible without a superb team behind him. But he's got such a strong character that it's just a talent magnet -- if not more, probably the best motivator one institution could ever hope, specially for engineers.
I think he's aware and quite pleased at all this image building as a "RL Iron Man", because it does wonders for the success of the companies. It's this kind of spirit that made apple's success, not the salary of the engineers.
I have yet to hear anyone speak positively about their experience working at SpaceX. The common theme seems to be incredibly high turnover with intense burnout. However, looking at Glassdoor right now, it seems things may have improved. Or there has been a lot of recent astroturfing going on. The reviews were pretty negative last I looked, a year or two ago.
> because you're selfish enough to value your time so little.
You're considering money the only value of my time. Happiness > $$$ after a certain point.
I can make $100K-200K/year running infrastructure to serve ads better, or do something that actually matters (going to Mars). How I spend my experience is up to me.
When Steve Jobs died they said that a long time would pass since we'd have another Steve.
Well, I think they were wrong. We have some great Jobs-like guy right here...
One that's easy to root for and that really shares some traits with Steve Jobs.
Now excuse me while I'll go buy some Tesla shares out of pure Muskboism.
I'm only half way through, but so far, I find it very disappointing that CBS has not given credit to anybody else who Musk has worked with.
They discuss "you decided to start a car company", but it was started by two other engineers, and Musk came in as an investor first, and joined the company later. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors It would have been nice to see Musk give some credit to the original visionaries. He's still very responsible for Tesla's success, but it wasn't JUST him.
Same with PayPal, it would have been nice for Musk to say "I stared PayPal with a few friends to..."
This report sadly gives nobody else any credit in the development of this empire.
To be fair, having a single face of the company being enforced constantly is probably an intentional PR decision. And it is quite effective from my perspective.
That's an interesting perspective, I hadn't thought of it that way. My concern is that it feeds into the idea that these guys do it all on their own, but then speak to any VC, and they talk about the team.
It's also a self reinforcing loop. In other words, even if Musk would _try_ to give credit to the team, much of that would be ignored in the reporting about Tesla/SpaceX/...
Musk bought himself into the game. There is actually some more dirty little secrets to the whole story. It looks like Musk bought himself in and then overtook the whole company. In 2009 after Eberhard (real founder and CEO) was kicked out, he filed a lawsuite against Musk - it got settled for god knows how many dollars.
Well, my memory isn't perfect, but didn't Musk try to let some other guy run Tesla, only to see it nearly driven into bankruptcy? It wasn't until Musk came back as CEO that it turned around, and is now worth over $20 billion. Of course there are countless talented people behind the product, but like great athletes, if they don't have a great coach, they won't win a lot of games. Musk just happens to be the greatest coach we've seen in generations.
That is true, but when the reporter asked at the end "what is it about YOU that seems to invite skepticism", he replied with "I think it's because WE'RE doing things that are unlikely to succeed". At least Elon is speaking from the frame of the team and not from his ego, even if the media is not.
Fair enough to a point, but was chairman of the board from seven months after it's founding and personally lead the design of the first car, the roadster, and even won two design awards at the time. He's absolutely earned the accolades he's got for his work there.
I thought this was an insightful look at Elon Musk, the man. It looks like his eyes are actually tearing up when discussing the NASA contract.
Another area of the interview I found telling was when Musk described 2008 and how he essentially lost all his money, got divorced, and almost faced a nervous breakdown. Musk isn't some billionaire playboy, he's a brilliant man with the conviction to take bold risks that could change the world and he's experienced the highs and lows of that journey. I'll admit I was a Musk fan before watching this interview, but now I'm even more impressed with him.
How does that crisis compare to Jobs' crisis with NeXT? My understanding is that he had a reality check that took about a decade, during which he and the people who worked with him pushed extremely hard, nearly failed, and were saved by the Apple buyout.
Musk has also accumulated tales of his immaturity as a business leader -- trying to switch PayPal to Windows, for example -- but if 2008 was a turning point for him, then he went through it a lot faster than Jobs.
Of course plenty of other people who have gone through crises and come out the other side much more fit. The entrepreneur's hero's journey?
I saw this when he teared up in the 60 minute interview last year when talking about how crushed he was that his childhood heroes (Neil Armstrong et al) attacked him and his company (wasn't personal, they just thought space exploration should be the sole domain of NASA, and not corporations)
Yeah, I remember that now. This is something deep inside him. I suspect it's inside lots of people of this age, growing up in the vapors of the end of the space age. He may feel a deep responsibility for making this happen now that he had the chance.
And that means what? Public money has saved a lot of companies. The next time you fly somewhere, thank defense contracts and US postal service contracts for subsidizing the development of commercial air travel.
Aerospace, especially space, is tightly linked with government spending, period.
Also, does the fact that Musk bet his entire fortune means he's a freeloader on corporate welfare?
Well, you didn't think his clients were going to be your average HN reader, who won't spend money to buy expensive developer tools or who daily ask how to get around a paywall because they believe everything should be free?
A few large companies and governments were his obvious targets. Just like large defense contractors exist on "public" money.
"Exactly. The military-industrial complex lives mostly on public money."
That's what I said. Is there some other point that you're trying to make? Getting a government contract isn't taking donations. You deliver a service or a product and you get paid for it. The US government spends a lot of money. Cray Supercomputer sold systems to the government too, for example. I imagine that if Elon wants to build his electric jet someday, one of his best business planes would be to build electric jet drones for the US government.
How much cheaper? We already have a small problem with Russian being the only way to get US astronauts into space. The privatization of space has been discussed for decades. Spending money on private companies is the logical choice. Jeff Bezos also got a small amount of Nasa funding. I would imagine that his company will also get future contracts.
Sorry if you don't agree with the decision but at this point we're just debating politics.
Public money allowed his company to develop faster than it did, but even with only non-governmental commercial contracts SpaceX still would have developed along the same lines, just much slower for a while.
Kudos all around! To those within the government with the foresight to bet on Musk (or those like him) and to Musk for actually pulling off something great with the opportunity.
Public money doesn't save incompetent people: read about Eike Batista from Brazil who had a net worth of 30 billion dollars in 2012 and now has a negative net worth (reported by Bloomberg in January 2014).
In the immortal words of Keanu Charles Reeves, "Whoa". So much admiration for this guy. For once, it's actually nice to see one of my heroes getting mainstream media coverage like this. The guy has broken through to the mainstream by being himself and staying true to his engineering roots. You look at a guy like Jobs and it was always such a hokey, patronizing, and calculated exercise with his Houdini-esque product launches. Elon's humility and grit should be an inspiration to all.
elon = grit, as an entrepreneur when i have dark times, i'll read about him to get amped. my favorite quote: "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work." -- back in 2008 after the SpaceX Falcon rocket failed to make orbit 3 times. More context: http://dcurt.is/elon-musks-determination
Interesting to note that when he said that, in the third quarter of 2008, he was in the middle of a complete implosion across everything in his life. Adds a very dramatic quality to it.
One of the parts of the interview that gave me chills was when they mentioned, Elon had seen the future and brought it back.
I think most of us on HN are building the future for a world that lives in the past and I think it's beautiful. We're trying to craft something that doesn't exist yet... but can.
There was an interesting section in "The Cat Who Walks Through Walls" where Heinlein writes about electric cars, and how the law eventually required them to install speakers which produced fake engine sounds. This was because the cars were so quiet that no one would hear them coming, and they'd step out into the road without looking.
Which is silly if the car is going faster that 15 mph (edit: actually 18.6 mph) . At these speeds what you are hearing is the road (tire) noise, not the engine.
I wonder how fast everyone forgets the real founders of Tesla: Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, and all credit is put on Elon. I am sure he deserves a lot of credit for his foresight, strategic decisions and also his execution... Bottom line he bought himself into the electric car game, which was itself a very good strategic move.
He was chairman of the board from month 7, and personalty won two design awards for his work leading the engineering team on the first car. Bottom line, he deserves all the credit he gets.
"If Elon Musk wanted to revolutionize the car industry, why didn't he figure out how to recycle the materials of the existing cars into Tesla somehow? Instead of making more new cars? Sure, the new cars are more environmentally friendly and sustainable but that doesn't solve the existing waste problem."
Which materials in particular are being referred to? Teslas don't use any rare-earth metals in their motors or batteries, and we're not exactly short on steel and aluminum.
It's got to be said that most of the wealth created in the last 50 years or so has been in either financial or software engineering.
Musk is a bit of a throw-back right to the 19th and 20th centuries in this regard. Humanity could do with more folks like him if we're to see real progress in our life-time.
Imagine the kind of scum it would take to bet against Tesla's success.
Here is Musk, improving human life, clearing our air and probably taking us to Mars one day and on the opposite, we have scumbags waiting to make a quick buck and working actively, bribing legislatures to make Tesla a failure.
Great quote from the interview with Musk. He first said that he actually expected when he started Tesla that most likely it would fail. When asked why he did it then, he answered, "If something is important enough, you should try even if the probable outcome is failure."
Is that old footage ? Just wondering because it portrays his second wife Talulah Riley, but (german) wikipedia states they have been divorced for 2 years already.
Definitely makes me want to buy Tesla stock. My guess is that Elon is on a road show to get the stock price back up. He'll probably stop by New York Times, ABC and others this week and the stock price will shoot back up to $230.
I think the most interesting thing about Tesla is it's applicability to SpaceX. If the goal of Tesla is to provide a better energy source (where "better" is defined as capacity and environmentally friendly) and SpaceX's primary constraint is the energy source, then long-term they'll be the same company.
How often do you see the BigBang or Plate Tectonics being reported as a controversy? There is a pile of evidence supporting anthropogenic climate change, but it's constantly downplayed as something one “believes” in or not.
First, his Gigafactory to produce batteries. When the other big automakers get into the electric car mindset, who are they going to buy batteries from? Musk who owns the single largest and high-tech battery factory (that produces on an enormous scale), or other battery producers who have less economies of scale and higher prices? Obviously, lower prices win and Musk ends up selling batteries to his competitors...genius.
Second, when other manufacturers get into the electric car game they are going to need nationwide chargers. Did you think that the Tesla and Supercharger of proprietary connectors for no reason? Since Tesla will have a huge nationwide system before anyone else, Musk will license the rights to use his chargers. Again, making money from the competition. Competitors will not have the ability to compete on charging when they release cars because Tesla will already have an established network.
As for SpaceX...thats a whole another post for another day.