I'm fascinated by the accidents. The AV is stopped at a light. Someone rear-ends it. Minimal damage.
Probably similar accidents are occurring every minute between human drivers, going unreported as the rule.
AVs might one day even avoid this "victimization," if these events keep following a predictable pattern. AVs could exaggerate the gap, leave a precisely calibrated amount of extra space. When anticipating a rear end collision, the AV would honk and flash brake lights while scooting forward.
Google's absolutely correct that its AVs are never at fault in any of these accidents, legally speaking. Does blame change though if there are ways the AI can prevent this series of similar accidents, but they choose not to?
The AV yields to those running a red light, even though getting t-boned wouldn't legally be the AV's fault. That seems wise to me. Is it inconsistent to expect the AV to avoid getting t-boned, but not expect it to avoid getting rear-ended? I'm not sure...
Or, more broadly: How do you divide blame between two parties when one has superhuman faculties? Is the AI responsible for everything it could have conceivably been programmed to prevent? Or do you just hold it to a human standard?
Like all hard problems, neither extreme is very satisfying.
Does blame change though if there are ways the AI can
prevent this series of similar accidents, but they choose
not to? [...] Is it inconsistent to expect the AV to avoid
getting t-boned, but not expect it to avoid getting rear-
ended?
While I was in college I worked on some wheeled robots that played a competitive ball game. We wanted to avoid collisions between robots, and to win the game.
One of the things we found was: If one team has great collision avoidance and the other team has no collision avoidance, the team without collision avoidance always wins. When there's a contest for the ball the team without collision avoidance just blasts in there, and when the team with collision avoidance back off to avoid a collision they lose the ball.
If autonomous cars were so good at avoiding accidents that you could merge aggressively and they'd always brake, and run red lights in front of them and they'd always stop, manual drivers might learn to do that.
Riding in a Google autonomous vehicle would be a pretty shitty experience if you knew you'd get four or five emergency stops in every journey when assholes decide to cut you up :)
Since the AV would be keeping detailed records of everything, legal remedies are possible. I imagine someone would quickly lose interest in cutting off AVs if after a modest threshold they would start getting a bill every month.
The Googlecar is collecting all this information about the behaviour of the other drivers: number plates, accurate time and location, LIDAR, possibly even video. No idea about the US, but in the UK such driving is itself an offence, you just need a way to prove it.
> Google's absolutely correct that its AVs are never at fault in any of these accidents, legally speaking. Does blame change though if there are ways the AI can prevent this series of similar accidents, but they choose not to?
By definition, we don't do that with human drivers that don't meet the legal circumstances to be "at fault" even if in the specific case it would be possible for them to avoid the accident but they didn't. Why would do that for non-human drivers?
I think what brownbat is saying is that regardless of legal outcome, there is potential for AVs to do better than humans here. Not that they have to, just that they could.
That's a really great way to put it, captures the powerful intuitions on one side of the issue here.
On the other side, well, we've been down some similar roads before. It's easier to see in the exploding Pintos and combustible Volkswagens. It's a common theme throughout the macabre history of modern (US) product liability: How much responsibility does a company have for accidents that it could prevent, but at some obnoxious cost? [1][2]
At one point, some judges had a simple rule. Just run the numbers. If you can prevent more harm than it costs you to fix, you better fix it. If not, eh, good call, save your money. Don't spend millions to prevent one stubbed toe every ten years, that'd be a waste.
Seems sensible. Until it gets applied to harder cases.
Sure, they did the tests. They knew their Pinto would burn a few hundred people to death each year. But they ran the numbers. They used the right value for life, were careful in their choice of actuarial tables, and used conservative costs for the upgrades. It was just too expensive. I mean, they'd have to be hit just right, perfect angle and velocity. Better to put the exploding fuel tanks on the road.
Maybe not better for Lilly Gray, trapped in a burning vehicle, skin sloughing off, pain so extreme her heart eventually quit.
But you know. Better for society.
So the resulting case[1] tackles that inevitable question: is this really enough? Ford clearly forecasted the future. They saw Lilly Gray's charred corpse in the crystal ball, or someone like her. They didn't do anything to stop it. They followed the law instead, because it was cheaper or more expedient. Are we really going to let that slide?
Ok, that's verging towards polemic. Let's pause. Let's swing back the other way: How many accidents is a company expected to prevent? Should every car be wrapped in thousands of dollars of bubble wrap, or whatever the steel equivalent is? Should every car come equipped with roll cage and handy fire extinguisher, prepped for battle on the NASCAR track? Should these hefty tanks then run on nearly inert fuel to prevent engine fires completely, capping their range at a few paltry miles?
Clearly there are extremes.
So let's drop the absurd extremes and go back to the common, the real issue. Back to Google's problem: avoiding the simple rear end collision.
Given enough data, enough predictability, you're going to see some subtle shifts in the notion of blame.
Especially when you start looking at the issue of "fault."
In most (all?) US states, juries divine a "percentage at fault" for both parties before proceeding to divvy up damages.
You're going to get at least a few juries claiming that, sure, the rear ender was 99% at fault, everyone can see that. But that savvy defense lawyer has a point: Google was at least a teensy weensy bit at fault, just barely. With all their data and slick technology, surely they could have done something. Surely they're responsible for not improving their algorithm ever so slightly to handle this particular case. Let's call it 1%. No more, certainly, but no less.
Conveniently enough - it's enough to get the case dismissed without any damages whatsoever. At least in a few US states.[3]
N.B. - I sharked you a bit here and I apologize. In my original post, I said Google wasn't at fault, "legally speaking," but "legally speaking," nothing's really ever that simple.
[2] http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/444/286.html - ok, doesn't really get all the way to this point, but the facts are startling, and prime the discussion. It's a harrowing story and explains a lot about how product liability works and why it exists.
> Consider another problem the vehicle already solves. The AV wisely yields to those running a red light, even though the AV has the right of way. If it didn't, but was instead frequently t-boned... Google could technically still say its vehicle "never caused an accident," right? It'd never be at fault for these, but the AVs are still designed to avoid them anyway. Is this inconsistent with a choice not to avoid rear end collisions at intersections?
This is called defensive driving. You as a human are supposed to avoid getting killed even in cases where you aren't legally liable. This includes making sure the intersection is clear before going in. It includes checking if anyone is coming down the wrong way of a one way street before going in or crossing it. It involves something as simple as making sure "right lane must turn" actually turned before someone magically appears out of your blind spot.
And, importantly, it also includes knowing what's behind you as much as knowing what's in front of you. If you see someone is going to rear-end you, you should at the very least step off the brake to make the collision less violent. If possible accelerate forward.
And I know this isn't possible [/practical] in most american cars because they're automatics, but don't hold the brake when you're standing still. It makes potential rear-endings work out better. And never turn the wheel before you intend to turn. If you get rear-ended you could get pushed into oncoming traffic.
All this is to say that while only one vehicle is to blame for a collision, two vehicles are responsible. (unless you hit a tree or some other static barrier, a tree cannot drive defensively)
Or, more bluntly, it might be the other person's fault, but you're the one who's dead.
I've been taught to always hold the break when at a stop light. If you get rear-ended, you won't roll into the intersection. Also, always hold the steering wheel, so you keep control if you get rear-ended.
I was taught to engage the hand brake when stopping at a junction or lights for this reason, a rear end impact would generally be at low speed compared to the speed of the potentail traffic in the crossing lane.
I've always assumed you can press the brake post fact to prevent rolling into an intersection, which I assumed was better than absorbing a lot of G-force.
Fundamentally, I think, if the impact is too strong for you to be able to react in time to brake before rolling too far, you would have rolled into the intersection despite holding the brake. Except it would be a skid not a roll.
The energy is still going to have to go somewhere.
Some of it will go into the crumple zones, the rest will go into burning rubber and throwing passengers against their restraints.
The question is whether a person is better able to withstand being pushed from the back with rapid acceleration, or absorbing the energy of a collision.
I do not have an answer, but I'm very interested where I could find one.
You mention whiplash in another comment. Wouldn't you avoid most whiplash with a properly configured headrest?
Not sure what you mean by this:
> pushed from the back with rapid acceleration, or absorbing the energy of a collision.
The occupants don't have to absorb the impact if the crumple zones take it!
I guess decent seats will do a lot to protect the occupants. A few years back I was a rear-seat-passenger in one of these https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/50/Nissan_M... when it was rear-ended. Luckily our driver WAS on the brake and didn't go forward into the cars in front - unlike the car behind us and the car behind them and the car behind them! (I forget exactly how many cars were involved but it needn't have been as many).
It's not about impact being strong. The surprise of the impact will severely slow down your reaction. By the time you've reacted, it's probably too late.
> You as a human are supposed to avoid getting killed even in cases where you aren't legally liable.
The bar is much higher than that. You are supposed to protect others, not just yourself, and including people who are at fault.
If a pedestrian is jaywalking and you provably have plenty of time and ability to avoid them, but you strike and kill them, you are definitely guilty of something like manslaughter. Although people somethings believe otherwise, the law (and morality) do not have the property that initial minor transgressions by one party absolve the other party of all fault in a resulting interaction.
Sometimes it really is impossible, I was involved with a case where the victim literally ran across the street, hidden by a bus stop panel. Nobody saw nobody, driver well below speed limits.
In modern bucket seats the risk of whiplash injury is incredibly minimal. Your head doesn't have the distance to travel far enough to hurt your neck. On the other hand, standing on the brake will cause both vehicles more damage and cause the other car to decelerate more quickly, causing the occupants to experience more acceleration in a direction in which the restraints are less effective (getting pressed into seat-belts and airbags hurt more than getting pressed into a seat).
Standing on the brake is simply shifting the energy around at the expense of the other party
Yep, which is why I think it depends on what's in front of you. A human probably doesn't have enough time to analyze the situation and determine whether or not they could do better than holding down the brake. A computer can probably do better in some situations.
Well that depends in where you want the momentum to go and how rapidly do you want to and can afford to dissipate it, does it not?
I mean, if the impact is strong enough, you'll be sent flying whether you are or aren't holding the brakes. Just that if you're not, your steering wheel is still going to steer.
The kind of things I wish driving school could teach you. I don't know how, a set of busted cars on a driving loop with mild collision so you'd know what it feels and how to react. Kind like wet roads and collision avoidance classes.
The pragmatic thing to do legally is to license it before it is widely deployed and then hold it to whatever standard you established at that time.
That doesn't rule out making the standard more stringent over time, but determining what events the AI gets blamed for probably doesn't need to be a huge gray area.
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Probably similar accidents are occurring every minute between human drivers, going unreported as the rule.
AVs might one day even avoid this "victimization," if these events keep following a predictable pattern. AVs could exaggerate the gap, leave a precisely calibrated amount of extra space. When anticipating a rear end collision, the AV would honk and flash brake lights while scooting forward.
Google's absolutely correct that its AVs are never at fault in any of these accidents, legally speaking. Does blame change though if there are ways the AI can prevent this series of similar accidents, but they choose not to?
The AV yields to those running a red light, even though getting t-boned wouldn't legally be the AV's fault. That seems wise to me. Is it inconsistent to expect the AV to avoid getting t-boned, but not expect it to avoid getting rear-ended? I'm not sure...
Or, more broadly: How do you divide blame between two parties when one has superhuman faculties? Is the AI responsible for everything it could have conceivably been programmed to prevent? Or do you just hold it to a human standard?
Like all hard problems, neither extreme is very satisfying.